Well, that would be the day. I actually don’t know much about all the financial terms save for what I’ve read, heard and seen on TV. And this is my disclaimer that everything I will write, wrote or writing is simply based on my uninformed opinion.
So, the past 1 month or so, we’ve all heard about the great financial crash. Lehman going bankrupt, AIG almost succumbing to it as well if not for the timely save by the US government and yet we see AIG executives blowing money on retreats and massages, how swell. Even locally, we have seen a couple of big giants affected. Ayala Corp. apparently has lost quite a sum on the financial markets, all stocks are down as such in all other internatonal markets. Even 2007 1st time billionaire Andrew Tan of Megaworld fame, fell down the ranks of billionaire and joined the multi-million ranks once again. People are scared and panicky, understandably so, because it’s about money. You know how it is, Man and his relationship with money. It goes a long, long way.
Well, relationships aside. The reason why I’m ‘blogging’ about this is because how I think it can affect the local economy. For the past few years or decade, the Philippines has slowly becoming synonymous for outsourcing. Ah yes, the great outsourcing race, where every bank or big western company has been forwarding all the calls to their service hotline into other countries that have the ’skill’ to speak like an American or British, really depends on where you are calling from. Aside from outsourcing, some of the more major industries we have that are very dependent on the international market (read: US of A), is export. More specifically, the export of two things, electronics and manpower. Though not really consider a commodity, overseas foreign workers send a lot of money home and really helps in boosting the economy as the money they send is used to spend and spending means more money going around, which I heard is generally a good thing. The export of electronics is another big market, 60% of total exports big. This includes electronics used in hospital, cars, radio, computers and among other things, while the next biggest is garments which has been experiencing quite a downturn for the past few years due to the emergence of cheaper manufacturing options in China & Vietnam.
So now that we got that intro out of the way, what’s next? Well simply put, when banks start going bankrupt and their stocks go crashing, there’s gonna be some belt tightening involved. Of course I think the 1st batch of people they would cut or retrench would be the executives. Things that they can do without and in the current business focus on service, the outsourcing scene in call centers and BPOs would probably one of the last groups to experience any major cuts in jobs. Again, it’s still gonna happen, I’ve already heard of some multi-national banks retrenching a certain percentage of their staff. Same thing for all those people who went to Singapore or Hong Kong to work in these big financial firms, some of them are gonna get cut. And once they do, that cuts into the remittances which in turn affects the local economy. It’s the same principle for people in other industries working overseas. The nurses, maids, engineers, doctors.. when people start cutting down their costs, the 1st thing off that list are luxury items, and personal nurses and maids are considered luxury in foreign soil.
Now the export of electronics is very connected to the root of all evil, money! You know we love it, money! Recently there has been news about GM and Chrysler talking about a merger, car sales have been dropping for quite some time now with the big gas hike a few months back and now this financial crash going on. Lots of job cuts that happened and by the end of 2008, GM will cut even more jobs, like 5,000. So more unemployed folks, less spending on consumer electronics, less car buying. Which means less demands from factories locally and we all know what happens if supply is > than demand. Basically less spending will decrease the need to manufacture some of the things such as microchips, ABS brakes or power supply adapters, and it will definitely affect the local electronic manufacturers and it’s workers. Garments is on the same boat. Not only is it a declining export commodity, clothes are also one of the things removed from the list of ‘what do I really need’ and ‘what are the things I can afford to buy’.
I admit I’m worried, I run an integrated marketing firm. Advertising costs are the first things that get cut out from annual budgets. And considering we are only about to enter into our 3rd month of operations, it’s going to be a tough ride and we’re going to have to grind it out. I just hope that our flexibility will allow us to move through the upcoming tough times ahead and I feel that if we can survive this, we can come out bigger and stronger.
On business related things, I think I’ve mentioned it before, I’m still quite interested in opening up my own gallery space/bar/event space and I’m considering in going to Singapore to open one. I think the market there is more ready, it’s art scene is growing and vibrant and it has lots of international exposure. Rent will probably kill me, though I hope with the financial crisis going on maybe i can get a better value. Spending might be down so that might kill me, but I don’t really need it to make a lot of money at the start. I just want something that people can come down, listen to some music or see some art. I gotta find some investors in this but I think it’s definitely worth doing. I hope there’s news to share about this once 2009 kicks in.
